Joe Spagnolo: How Fatima Payman destroyed Anthony Albanese’s best-laid plans

WA senator Fatima Payman’s decision to put personal conviction ahead of a Labor caucus position on Palestine won’t cost Anthony Albanese government. But the timing of Senator Payman’s political grenade — which ended in her resigning from the party —- could well be the final nail in the coffin in terms of any chance Albanese had of forming a majority government at the next poll. A minority government is now his best hope. July 1 was supposed to be a sweet moment for Albanese, the day his much-vaunted tax cuts came into play — the unofficial beginning of his re-election campaign. But how’s that saying go? The best-laid plans of mice and men often go awry. Two days before Albo’s tax cuts came into play, Treasurer Jim Chalmers’ office distributed to the media a joint press release from Chalmers and Albanese talking up Labor’s cost-of-living measures. Included was a table explaining roughly how much extra Australians could expect to get in their pay packets. Everything was in place for the big moment, which Albo hoped would convince Australians he was addressing their cost-of-living woes. But while Albo and Chalmers were busily prepping the media about “tax cuts, energy rebates, cheaper medicines, paid parental leave and award wage rises”, Senator Payman was also doing her own press — an interview with The Sunday Times and then the ABC’s Insiders, talking about her refusal to join her colleagues and follow the party line on Palestine. Senator Payman wants Palestine to be recognised as its own State immediately, rather than Albo’s go-slow approach. Albanese hauled Payman in for a meeting on the Sunday and suspended her indefinitely from caucus meetings. So how did the joint Albo-Chalmers cost-of-living press release on the Saturday go? This was the front-page headline in The Australian, on the day the tax cuts came into effect: “Sin Bin for rebel who called Labor’s bluff.” By Thursday, Payman had quit the ALP, announcing she would join the cross bench as an independent senator, sparking further front-page news right around Australia. Although there has been much discussion in the national press about a possible anti-Albanese vote from Muslim communities because of his Government’s position on the Middle East conflict (which seems to be about trying to tread the fine line between diplomacy and tough action) this is not expected to be a defining issue in WA come the next Federal poll. But the cost of living will be. Faced with a likely further interest-rate hike as early as next month, Albanese needs his cost-of-living measures to strike a chord with voters — and WA is no different. If Albanese is to hang on to WA seats he won from the Liberals in 2022, then voters will at least need to feel his Government has properly addressed cost-of-living pressures, keeping in mind that a recent Chamber of Commerce and Industry WA survey found cash-strapped West Aussies were vowing to spend less on coffees, booze and holidays as a result of dwindling savings. Alarmingly, 40 per cent of the 900 people surveyed by CCIWA said they would need to cut back on groceries and 28 per cent said they would spend less on health care. Senator Payman will now see out her four years left as a WA senator as an independent. It’s one less vote Albanese can count on in the Senate to get legislation passed. An annoyance, but not a political tragedy for Labor. Albo can weather the storm of a one-time Labor MP deciding the grass is greener as an independent. He can weather the storm of many Australians applauding the 29-year-old for being true to her convictions. But Albanese will find it tough to weather the growing storm of discontent among Australians who voted for him in 2022 looking for a better Australia, and now have to cut back on their coffee to make ends meet. Just as Albo had hoped, July 1 got him front-page coverage — but for all the wrong reasons.