Government analysis claims Queensland stands to lose $872bn in lost output by 2050

Queensland faces an $872bn economic black hole due to the Coalition’s election promise to build seven nuclear power plants by 2050, new government modelling has shown.

Under Peter Dutton’s nuclear plan, the state will host two of the sites in Tarong, northwest of Brisbane, and Callide in central Queensland.

The $872bn figure, which equates to a 5 per cent loss in the gross state product, accounts for the shuttering of large industry operations, such as the large-scale and energy-intensive Boyne Island aluminium smelter in Gladstone.

The modelling says similar operations would halve their output by about 2030 and unlikely recover.

The calculations also draw on target assumptions from the Coalition’s $331bn plan which uses parameters set by AEMO’s “progressive change” scenario of 1.89 per cent GDP growth per annum, instead of its “step change” calculations of 2.12 per cent in annual GDP growth.

Notably, the energy regulator’s progressive change scenario reflects slower economic growth and energy investment, while the “step change” modelling factors rapid energy transition aligned with Australia reaching net zero emissions by 2050.

Jim Chalmers, who is the Albanese government’s most senior Queensland MP, said nuclear would be detrimental to the state.

“Peter Dutton’s nuclear scheme is economic madness and will leave every Queensland household worse off,” he said.

“As a Queenslander, I won’t sit back and watch Peter Dutton push energy prices up and growth down right across the state.

“Peter Dutton is the biggest risk to household budgets and Australia’s economy because he wants to push up power prices, slow growth and come after wages and Medicare.”

Previously the Treasurer has said Australia would lose a total of $4 trillion in lost output by 2050, and $1.4 trillion in NSW alone.

The figures were released ahead of the Prime Minister second day touring Queensland, visiting Rockhampton and Cairns.

Despite nuclear energy being one of the federal Coalition’s signature election pitches, the plan has been to date rejected by the state LNP government.

Due to Queensland’s moratorium on nuclear energy, a plebiscite would also be needed to overturn the ban.

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On Monday, Deputy Liberal Leader Sussan Ley was also quizzed over the missing details in the Coalition’s nuclear plan, promising “the finer details will come” in the lead up to the election.

“Well, when I talk to Australians, they’re not saying, what are the ‘finer’ details of your policy, they’re saying: ‘Look, we like the idea of nuclear, we think it makes sense, we’re tuned in and we’re not confident that this government has got it right,’ and to tell you the truth, the conversation comes right back to the cost of living,” she said.