Stocks firm as US outlook absorbs geopolitical shocks

Global shares have held steady as investors take geopolitical tumult in their stride, leaving oil and gold modestly higher while the dollar edged up ahead of US inflation data that could cement a rate cut.

The rapid fall at the weekend of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime complicates an already fraught situation in the Middle East.

Yet the oil price, a key barometer of investor sentiment towards the region, displayed little volatility, rising 1.3 per cent to $72 a barrel by 0840 GMT.

In France, President Emmanuel Macron had yet to name a new prime minister after Michel Barnier's minority government collapsed over his austere budget, while Asian markets were on edge as the fallout over last week's brief declaration of martial law in South Korea deepened.

Friday's US monthly employment data - which was strong enough to soothe any concerns about the resilience of the economy but not so robust as to rule out a rate cut from the Federal Reserve next week - acted as a shock absorber.

US stock index futures rose 0.1 per cent, suggesting a move beyond last week's record highs for the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Russell 2000 while in Europe, the STOXX 600 got off to a stronger start, up 0.3 per cent.

"It's all down to the US really and we've got the majors (indices) at, or on, record highs," Trade Nation market strategist David Morrison said.

"The interesting thing is the 'Trump rally' has just continued, with no pullback and no opportunities for fresh longs to come in.

"You have to pay up or you're missing out.

"That is very much the feeling of this market at the moment," he said.

The next test is a US consumer price report due on Wednesday where with the core seen as holding at 3.3 per cent for November, which should not impede an easing.

November's payrolls report showed 227,000 jobs were created compared with expectations for a rise of 200,000, while October's hurricane-distorted number was revised up.

Markets now imply an 85 per cent chance of a quarter-point cut at the December 17-18 meeting, up from 68 per cent ahead of the jobs figures, and have a further three cuts priced in for 2025.

The dollar index was flat at 106, as was the euro at $1.0566.

The European Central Bank is widely expected to deliver a quarter-point cut on Thursday.

South Korean stocks slid 2.8 per cent even as authorities pledged all-out efforts to stabilise financial markets amid uncertainty over the fate of President Yoon Suk-yeol.

Yoon survived an impeachment vote in parliament on Saturday prompted by his short-lived attempt to impose martial law.

The dollar gained 0.7 per cent on the won to trade at 1,434.51 , nearing last week's peak of 1,443.40.

Chinese figures out on Monday showed consumer prices fell a surprisingly large 0.6 per cent in November, pulling annual inflation down to just 0.2 per cent and underlining the need for more drastic policy stimulus.

This week is chock-full of central bank meetings, aside from the ECB.

The Swiss National Bank could cut rates by as much as half a point given slowing inflation, as could Canada's central bank when it meets on Wednesday following an unexpected rise in unemployment for November.

The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on Tuesday and is one of the central banks expected to hold fire, while Brazil's central bank is set to hike again to contain inflation.

"With geopolitical uncertainty high and conflicting signals from hard and soft data, monetary policy remains the only game in town to support economic activity, especially in the absence of strong political leadership in Paris and Berlin," Barclays economist Christian Keller said.

"We continue to expect consecutive 25bp cuts until June next year, and then cuts in September and December to reach a terminal rate of 1.5 per cent."

Geopolitical uncertainty helped gold edge up 0.6 per cent to $2,648 an ounce, but it faces resistance at $2,666.