China property stocks rally after major cities ease homebuying restrictions

Shares of Chinese property developers rallied on Monday after major cities in mainland China unveiled easing measures to boost homebuyer sentiment, following the central bank’s blitz of policy stimulus.

The Guangzhou city government said in a notice on Sunday that all restrictions on home purchases would be removed, effective from Monday. Previously, migrant families were required to pay taxes or social insurance for at least six months in order to purchase up to two homes, while single individuals were limited to one apartment.

The Shanghai government also lowered the required tax-paying period to one year from three years.

The city also lowered the down-payment ratio for first homes to around 15 per cent, while second homes to about 25 per cent, above the nation’s average ratio of 15 per cent. The rules take effect starting Tuesday, according to the notice late Sunday.

Shenzhen’s government also relaxed purchasing restrictions — which had capped local families to two homes and single individuals to one — allowing buyers to purchase one more apartment in certain districts. Migrant families with at least two children can now buy two homes, instead of one previously, according to the statement.

The Hang Seng Mainland Properties Index climbed 7 per cent on Monday, extending last week’s gain of more than 30 per cent.

Hong Kong-listed shares of real estate developers like Longfor Group Holdings, Hang Lung Properties, China Resources Land were some of the biggest movers on the Hang Seng index, gaining 12.4 per cent, 12.7 per cent and 2.5 per cent, respectively.

China Overseas Land & Investment and China Vanke climbed 3.5 per cent and 11.7 per cent, giving back some of the gains in the morning session.

Mainland China’s CSI 300 surged 8.5 per cent Monday, after the index logged its best week in almost 16 years on Friday. The CSI 300 Real Estate index jumped over 9 per cent.

Easing purchase restrictions may help lift property sales in the first-tier cities — like Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou — by a greater margin than other cities, said Allen Feng, an associate director at Rhodium Group, pointing out that similar measures had not worked in other cities previously.

The view is shared by Gary Ng, APAC economist at Natixis, who suggests the effect more limited in smaller cities “given the elevated inventory level.” They are more likely to lead to some “stabilisation” rather than a turnaround, Ng said.

The easing measures follow the central government’s call last week to combat the property slump last week.

Authorities “must work to halt the real estate market decline and spur a stable recovery,” according to a readout of the high-level meeting, chaired by Chinese President Xi Jinping.

The People’s Bank of China also reduced the interest rates on existing individual mortgages by an average of 0.5 percentage points, and lowered the average down-payment ratio for second homes purchases to 15 per cent from 25 per cent.

Real estate once contributed more than a quarter of China’s GDP, but entered a multi-year downturn after Beijing’s crackdown on the sector’s high levels of debt in 2020.

Chinese policymakers have been ramping up support to reduce household’s financial burden and shore up the troubled real estate sector. But the previous measures have not led to any meaningful turnarounds.

China may “need to accelerate its efforts at completing stalled or abandoned construction projects of pre-sold properties” in order to shore up confidence among potential homebuyers and restore demand, said Erica Tay, director of macro research at Maybank Investment Banking Group, noting that only 4 per cent of the floor space under construction this year have been completed.

“Swift follow-up of fiscal policies” is crucial, Nomura analysts led by Jizhou Dong said in a note on September 26, and “if introduced soon enough” they would act as tailwinds to stimulate domestic consumption and stabilize the property sector.

Homebuyer demand would slowly bottom out and mortgage loan growth is expected to stop contracting soon, Natixis’ Ng said, “but it will take longer, and measures in larger magnitude to see a sharp overall rebound in the property market.”